Behind Enemy Lines in the MLB pennant race

Yo, this is Nicky stepping back into the box after looking fastball and getting the deuce on that Reds call. My bad. So we’ve dropped to 9-4 but gave up a unit and a half because of the juice so we gotta get that back. Fortunately, the best thing to remedy a bad loss is a good win and there seems to be some good value on the board today, but as you know we only chose one, so I’m going with the Giants (-150) to beat the last place Diamondbacks. I’ve tried to find something wrong with this game as the Giants are a great home team, they have Zito on the bump going against Hudson who has only 6 starts to his credit, and it’s the type of matchup we’re looking for where one team has everything to lose going up against a club with nothing to gain. On the quant side San Francisco is 7-1 their last 8 games against Zona and 6-1 at home. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

 

ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS	SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS

51-78

August 28, 9:05 PM | Grass of AT&T Park

71-58

SMART CHART
ARI		TEAM		SF
4.5		RUNS		4.4
5.4		RUNS AGNST		3.9
-0.91		DIFF		0.56
-$2,538		MONEY		$515
5.03		TEAM ERA		3.64
8.54		OFF HITS		8.98
3.71		OFF WALKS		3.09
9.20		OFF Ks		6.74
9.54		DEF HITS		8.29
3.53		DEF WALKS		3.82
6.78		DEF Ks		8.10

 

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Yo, this is Nicky back for more damage but I gotta’ admit there was no way of knowing about Strasburg’s injury but we’ll take the win just the same for our third in a row to move to 9-3 in our last 12. Things don’t get any easier as the season moves more and more into crunch time, so unless you want to lay huge lumber in games that involve a non-contender you need to keep on your toes and do your homework. I realize road dogs are a risky prop in August but that’s also what keeps you at least close to even money when betting on a good club so let’s get to it. I like the Reds (-102) going into AT & T Park against the Giants. Travis Wood (4-1, 2.51 ERA) could be the best kept secret and even better than the afore mentioned Strasburg,  and San Francisco's hitters may all face a challenge facing him for the first time. Anyway, it’s minimal juice to lay for a division winner in the heat of a pennant race. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep you glove’s up, as Football is  coming soon!!

 

CINCINNATI REDS	SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS

72-53

August 24, 10:15 PM | Grass of AT&T Park

70-56

 

 

Statline Reds vs. Giants
CIN		TEAM		SF
4.9		RUNS		4.3
4.2		RUNS AGNST		3.8
0.72		DIFF		0.54
$1,608		MONEY		$430
4.01		TEAM ERA		3.57
9.30		OFF HITS		8.86
3.18		OFF WALKS		3.10
7.38		OFF Ks		6.71
8.68		DEF HITS		8.21
3.42		DEF WALKS		3.79
6.66		DEF Ks		8.08

 

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Yo this is Nicky and we’re back in the winners column with two straight wins bringing the record to 8-3 for the last 11. We’re really trying to pick our spots now, particularly as the games begin to be really important to some clubs while others are bringing up players to get ready for next year. Couple that with some serious juice on the home teams that need a win and you almost have to win 2 to 1 just to break even, but this is where a little homework goes a long way, so let’s get to it. On a day where many staff aces are on the hill I’m going to going to go against one and us the hype to our advantage and get good value with a home team that’s a contender. We can get the hottest team in baseball Philly, and only lay 10% juice so go against the  rook and play Philly -110 . The Phillies have won 18 of their last 21 at home and 9-1 against Washington in their last 10. Even if Strasburg is ace he won’t go the distance because of the pitch count and when Philly gets into the bullpen the Nats better have a big cushion.  That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

 

WASHINGTON NATIONALS	PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES

52-70

August 21, 7:05 PM | Grass of Citizens Bank Park

69-52

 

 

Statline Nats vs. Phils
WSH		TEAM		PHI
4.0		RUNS		4.7
4.6		RUNS AGNST		4.1
-0.61		DIFF		0.60
-$860		MONEY		-$65
4.13		TEAM ERA		3.89
8.52		OFF HITS		8.92
2.99		OFF WALKS		3.31
7.35		OFF Ks		6.41
9.11		DEF HITS		8.79
3.25		DEF WALKS		2.55
6.38		DEF Ks		7.10

 

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Yo, this is Nicky the Fish back in the saddle of MLB after dropping 3 straight to go 6-3 in our last nine, but we’ve got a mound of data and we are finally getting some separation in a few of the divisions and some good value as well so let’s get back to it. In the evening games I like the OVER in the Twins/Sox Opener (7 buy the hook if your book has it at 7.5). It’s the beginning of a crucial three game set between the two after Minnesota took 3 out of 4 the last time the two matched up. I was looking at the Twins to take game one, but the pitching matchup is tight with Danks (12-8) going up against Baker (10-9) so rather than fight the momentum of  a crucial divisional series that the Sox almost have to win, play thwith the mo’ and ride the over. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, saying stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

 

CHICAGO WHITE SOX	MINNESOTA TWINS

65-53

August 17, 8:10 PM | Grass of Target Field

68-50

Statline Sox and Twins
CHW		TEAM		MIN
4.6		RUNS		4.9
4.2		RUNS AGNST		4.0
0.45		DIFF		0.92
$605		MONEY		$549
3.95		TEAM ERA		3.86
8.77		OFF HITS		9.71
2.86		OFF WALKS		3.58
5.25		OFF Ks		5.82
8.80		DEF HITS		9.04
3.02		DEF WALKS		2.25
7.03		DEF Ks		6.47

 

 

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Jumping into the MLB fray

Yo, this is Nicky, back for more work after the Yankees took care of business against the A’s and improved the MLB record to 4-0. If we keep this up we’ll start sounding like those 800 numbers that claim they never lose, but let’s try to keep it going. On Sunday I like the Dodgers (-142) to win their last game at home prior to the All-Star Break. There is good value paying less than 1.5 for a home team even though they’re facing Silva. It’s a crapshoot to see how much his calf injury will affect his play but coming off a loss and with Padilla on the bump I like LA to take the series and the game. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

 

CHICAGO CUBS	LOS ANGELES DODGERS

39-49

July 11, 8:05 PM | Grass of Dodger Stadium

48-39

Statline Cubs vs. Dodgers
		TEAM
4.1		RUNS		4.8
4.5		RUNS AGNST		4.5
-0.43		DIFF		0.26
-$2,435		MONEY		$122
4.01		TEAM ERA		4.14
8.60		OFF HITS		9.16
3.14		OFF WALKS		3.47
7.39		OFF Ks		7.03
8.49		DEF HITS		8.62
3.24		DEF WALKS		3.36
7.81		DEF Ks		8.02

 

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Yo this is Nicky the Fish and sorry for the late post but I needed to confirm the starting line-ups and the game I like is on the West coast so let’s get to it. We’ve now hit three MLB games in a row after we hit our easy winner with the Braves over the Nats. I realize we’ve been laying a lot of lumber on the favs so I’ve tried to be more than careful to only jump in where I see value, and I have another one tonight. I like Yanks (-150) with CC on the bump going into Oakland in a revival of “moundgate”. The A’s printing up T-Shirts which serves more to rally the Yankees than inspire the A’s. Even with that the A’s are going to try and throw a righty and that brings the big sticks into play for NY, take em. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

 

Yankees vs. A's Statline
Yankees		TEAM		Oakland
5.4		RUNS		4.1
4.2		RUNS AGNST		4.1
1.20		DIFF		-0.04
$265		MONEY		-$201
3.95		TEAM ERA		3.84
9.27		OFF HITS		8.89
4.07		OFF WALKS		3.01
6.54		OFF Ks		6.65
8.00		DEF HITS		8.37
3.24		DEF WALKS		3.23
7.23		DEF Ks		6.83

 

 

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Yo this is Nicky the Fish and I gotta admit I’m feeling pretty good now that we’ve hit our first two MLB games (Dodgers over Yanks, Marlins Over 8) this week. Let’s try to keep the momentum going and build up some scratch going into the weekend. On Wednesday I love HotLanta -170 to take care of the Nats at home. I know, it’s some serious lumber but I like Jurrjens, and the Braves lineup is tailor made for right handed pitching. Lastly, coming off a loss they’re one of the best in the league. That’s the chowder for Wednesday, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

 

WASHINGTON NATIONALS	ATLANTA BRAVES

34-44

June 30, 7:10 PM | Grass of Turner Field

45-33

 

 

Statline Nats vs. Braves
WSH		TEAM		ATL
4.1		RUNS		4.7
4.6		RUNS AGNST		4.0
-0.50		DIFF		0.73
-$265		MONEY		$700
4.11		TEAM ERA		3.79
8.50		OFF HITS		8.67
3.24		OFF WALKS		4.33
7.03		OFF Ks		6.86
9.38		DEF HITS		8.12
3.21		DEF WALKS		3.38
5.78		DEF Ks		7.14

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