Also late I like Wake Forest (+5) to beat Texas. Teams that are on a roll going into the dance tend to stay on a roll, conversely, teams that limp in or back in seem to go out early. The truth is weather someone figured these guys out and gave everyone the blueprint or they just have lost their legs late in the season, they have not looked good for a while and two possession in a tight 8/9 tournament game is too much. That’s the day one chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!  Here's the statline for you fans of the data analysis.

Another game where I see good value is Richmond (-2) against St. Marys. I know they Gaels got snubbed last year and have that (25-4) record but Richmond has that great backcourt and at only a 2-pt line, I like the value of a getting a 7 seed in just a “win” situation. That’s the early chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

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NFC - Championship

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Behind Enemy Lines Divisional Playoff Weekend

Yo, this is Nicky and coming off the split yesterday we need a winner in the late game to finish one-up so let’s get to it. The pattern seems to be obvious that the home teams are holding serve, particularly with teams that have had the extra week to prepare, and  I’m not going to stand in front of the freight train, but what does concern me is the “non-ideal” weather conditions in San Diego that may keep this game close. The same questions present themselves today as they did last with regarding Mark Sanchez at QB, but throw more chips in the center of the table as it’s a bigger game AND he’s playing so close to his home town. I went against him last week and I’m going to double up and take the SuperChargers (-8.5 buying the hook). On the other side of the ball the Jets can run, but the SD rush D has been ok this year and even better at home. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

Ok, the Pack and the Pats cost us last weekend and we had our first sub .500 weekend in a long time so we gotta get it back this weekend and things only get more difficult but let’s get to it. The first game on Saturday morning is the Cards/Saints matchup where the first thing that comes to your mind is the over, as both of these teams seem to be able to score at will but the betting lines discount everything except acts under God and they’re factoring just that, so the 58 point over is just too high to mess with. Just the same I wouldn’t go the other way as it’s possible this could be a game in the 40’s like last weekend. The Saints have had plenty of time to lament over their last 3 losses and will come out smokin’ in front of a New Orleans crowd that hasn’t hosted a home game since Chuck Muncie was playing tail for em’. I think the Cardinal’s dream of a back-to-back appearance ends this weekend and I know it’s a little lumber, but buy the hook and take the Saints down to -6.5. Here’s the statline:

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Behind Enemy Lines Wildcard Weekend

In the late game you’ve gotta’ go with the Pack (-2.5 buy the hook) on the road as the Cards have not shown any indication that they can stop the Green Bay offense or anyone for that matter of late and you would need to see a complete change of mo’ in this one. The Cards have not looked good over past three weeks, and with no Quan’ and Warner looking more towards retirement than winning the next game, while the Packers are winners of 7 of their last 8, including 5-0 ATS their last 5 games, and 4-1 ATS against the Cards. This game started at GB -1.5 and now is at 3, that’s a pretty big line move, as they say in the stock market, “don’t fight the tape”. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring, and keep your gloves up!

Yo this is Nicky and I’d like to thank the Eagles for not showing up yesterday, making the late game no duress, and evening up our record for the day. I like what I see today so let’s get healthy. In the early game, I realize the Pats aren’t the same team without Wes Welker and Randy Moss doesn’t have more than 45 receiving yards in a game when he doesn’t play but I like the Pats -3 at home. They’re the only unbeaten team at home this season (8-0) and the Bill/Brady combination has never lost a home playoff game. Here’s the statline:

Wow, this second game is tough to call. I know all of the stats about beating a team 3 times in one season but actually it hasn’t been as one sided as you might think as 12 of the 19 have done just that when given the opportunity. Sometimes you just got someone’s number. In this case the Ca’Boys are playing some of the best football of the season at the right time and the Eagles simply have not been matching up well with Dallas and even though the first game was close, in the second game 7 of their 11 drives ended in punts, 1 to, 1 missed fg, and a stop on downs. We’d be asking them to turn everything around even though they’ve showed no ability to do so. On the other side is all of that history where the Ca’Boys haven’t won a playoff game since Dallas was on TV, and Romo, for being such a playboy, is a virgin when it comes to the winning a playoff game, but I think he will get his first taste this weekend. However, this is combat gentlemen and there are no points for second place, and call it a it what you will but I don’t like Dallas giving up over a field goal in this game, so buy the hook down to a FG and play Dallas -3, and don’t be surprised if you push. For a little taste, try a Cincy +4/Eagles +10 tease to cover yourself as playoff time is an excellent time to tease. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

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Behind Enemy Lines BCS Championship

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For the second game let’s stay with the same strategy and play a must win against a team that’s not in contention, the Denver (-10) vs. KC game. I know Marshall is suspended but it won’t make a difference as the Broncos can still get in even if they lose and when I found out this game was played at the same time as the Ravens (Denver can’t get in if the Ravens win) then it became a go. Even if Pittsburgh wins the Broncos can still go so they’ll have something to play for. This will be the second game on the Teaser ticket so it will be Ravens -3.5/Broncos -3.Here's the Statline, but that goes out the window in a game like this:

Lastly, I like the Eagles (+3.5 buy the hook) against the CaBoy’s. It should be a big game in Big D and I know it’s for all the division but if the Eagles come away with the win they’ll get a chance to rest starters on the by week so there is plenty to play for on their side and I think they’ll get it done. Moreover I would really be surprised if this turned out to be more than a 3 point game. For all of you quants, the Eages are 4-2 there last 6 ATS, 5-0 straight up thier last 5, and 4-1 ATS on the road thier last 5. Also a great tease to take Philly up. Ok, that’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

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Behind Enemy Lines Week 16 NFL

Yo, this is Nicky and after a 3-0 weekend last weekend (don’t forget the bonus pick on the site) we’re 4-1 over the last two weekends so let’s keep the mo’ going. The first game I like is the Friday evening game as the Superchargers (+3.5 buy the hook) travel to Tennessee to take on the Titans. I realize this is a must win for the Titans and the Chargers all but have the AFC Weak wrapped up after the Denver choke last week, but SD is the hottest team in the league right now and they’re looking to get home games against everyone except the Colts who they’re not really afraid of. On top of that the Stats also lean their way as the Chargers are 5-2 ATS their last 5, 4-1 on the road, and 5-0 ATS against Tennessee. This is one of those games that’s looks so good on paper that it makes you check injuries and weather, but I can’t see anything talking me of this. Take the points and consider the money line play for chump change. Here’s the stat line.

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The second game looks like a ‘bear trap’ just like the chargers did last week but I’ve looked this up and down and can’t see how the Dolphins are GETTING 5 at Tennessee. I know Ronnie Brown is out for the year but we’ve known that for two weeks, and the Fish still seem to keep winning without him including back-to-back upsets of the Patriots and Jags. I mean these are the 6-7 Tennessee Titans correct? Even if they manage to get an entire game out of Vince Young and he doesn’t revert back to his old ways, they still should be getting points at home. I realize their running game has been on fire and they are feeling some mo’ lately but the Fish are fighting for their playoff lives and a loss all but seals their fate based on their schedule. Ok, for you quants, if that’s still not enough, the Dolphins are 5-2 ATS their last 7, and 4-1 straight up. I like the stat line as well. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

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This is Nicky, back for more work but I must say I’m sorry to see college go the way were playing at the end so now we have to make our steak with the big dogs so let’s get to it. Firstly, I like the Jags (-2) to hold serve against the Dolphins. This is a huge game of the Jags as they have to take 2 of their last four and this one at home is one they need to get. The Jags are 4-1 in their last 5 straight up and the fish are 2-4 ATS on the road and I think that trend will continue. Here is the statline:

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NFL Week 13 Afternoon games

Yo, this is Nicky back for more action in the NFL had to get some more math done as after getting off to the good start on Thursday night we’re under water for the weekend so let’s find some value. I know we’ve only played one u/o for the year and we hit it, and now I’m going to try and got 2 for 2 as I like the under (45) in the Giants/CaBoy game. The first time these two teams met the tallied 64 points between them and 75% of the time when teams play for the second time in the season the game total goes the other way. Furthermore the total has gone under in 4 of Dallas's last 5 games  Here’s the statline on the game

Behind Enemy Lines - Championship Week

Ok, we got back on the winning track on Thursday night (13-4 last 17) and now we gotta  go into the mire that is Championship Day, and although the research took a little longer that usual there are a couple of value plays out there so let’s get to it. I like the Clemson Tigers (+1) at home vs. Georgia Tech. They played earlier in the year and the Jackets won by 3, but that was at home, and I like the momentum that Clemson has played with lately. On the quant side Clemson is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games and 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Georgia Tech. I realize GT has owned them over the last 6 (5-1) but I like the statline as well;

Yo this is Nicky and I owe you one for going 0-2 (12-4 last 16) last weekend so I figured we’d get started early, but I like what I see on Thursday on here’s why. Oregon State has only lost one game all year by 10 points and that was to #5 Cincinnati. Also, Oregon gives up over 100 yards per game on the ground (130) which means OState will be able to move the ball and should be able to come close to their average of 32 points per game. I know the Ducks can score but I can’t see them putting up enough to cover double digits in a rivalry game so I like Oregon State (+10.5 buy the hook). For all of you quants, Oregon State is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games, and 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games on the road.  Here’s the stat line:

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Behind Enemy Lines - Rivalry Week in College Football

I’m going to take a fav in the second game as I like Stanford (-9.5 buy the hook) to send Charlie out a loser in his last game at Notre Dame. The Cardinal are probably the most underrated team in the NCAA because of their past and a non-intimidating offense. They don’t spread the field or beat you with speed, they just line up and punch you in the mouth with a Rocky Blier style tailback, and if Notre Dame gives up over 160 yards on the ground the Cardinal might just go for 300, these guys can play, take it and bit it. Here’s the stat line. That's the chowder, I'm Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your glove's up! Back with you tomorrow.

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Behind Enemy Lines - NFL Week 10

This is Nicky, and we hit our college game yesterday with Zona and the points improving our run in college to 12-2 our last 14, now let’s turn our focus to the NFL. Firstly, I’m still bitter at the Broncos for messing us up last weekend but the books shouldn’t be the only ones to benefit from the misfortunes of the Mile High City, so I’m going to sell short based on Chris Simms’ inability to move the offense and take the Chargers minus a ton (-6, buy the hook). I would be surprised if the Broncos got into the end zone at all in this game. Here’s the statline:

The second pick of the weekend are the Jags (-8) hosting the coach less Bills. The ether of playing for a new coach and ‘turning over a new leaf’ will last for about a quarter until they realize they can’t score the football. The Jags (5-4) realize they have not only a shot at salvaging their season but actually making the playoffs but they must get the ‘W’ in a gimme game like this one. They’ll show up and take care of business. Here’s the statline:

The last game I like is for the Pats (-10, buy the hook) to punish the Jets at the Razor. I’m not even going to bring up the 4^th and 2, you’ll make your own opinion on how they’re going to rebound after that game, but the stats on Bill’s Patriots losing two in a row, two to the same team, home games in November warrants a 14.5 point line, furthermore the NY Jets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games, 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games on the road, while the Pats are 11-3 SU in their last 14 games when playing NY Jets, so I’ll take it at two scores and bet that the Rookie Sanchez has an absolutely rude introduction to the Razor. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring, and keep your gloves up!

Behind enemy lines - NCAA Football

Yo, this is Nicky and the way we’ve been rollin’ in the NCAA (11-2 our last 13) so we should not try to out think ourselves but the this is a really tough week so stick to the fundamentals. That kept us out of disaster last Sunday when we felt so strong about Denver, and I know you can’t do anything when you get hit with an injury but that’s why you always play even units and never ‘load up’ regardless of how good it looks. There’s nothing on the board that jumped out at me and screamed value but I do like a home dog that I think can win on the field so take Zona (+6.5, buy it if you have to) against Oregon. I know how potent Oregon is and that they’re going for a Rose Bowl birth with a win, but Arizona only gives up 100 yards on the ground and they could slow the Ducks down. Also the Cats are a good home team and Stoops will have them ready to play spoiler. They may not win on the field but this will be close and I feel better getting than giving in this one. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

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NFL Week 9

Another 2-0 day in college football means we’re 11-2 our last 13, let’s keep the mo’ going into the NFL. To start off I know our first rule is always to keep even units, what ever it is. Never put any more value in one game than another as you always have the same chance of getting bit. However if there ever was a game that I felt more strongly than normal it is the Broncos (-3, buy the .5) going into Washington. When I looked at this I would have laid 7 or 8 and was fearing the ‘bear trap’ when I saw the line, but it’s still a go. The Broncos’ lead in the West is down to 1 game of the Chargers who are on a roll right now and this would be 3 losses in a row for Denver.

In the late game I like the Patriots (+3.5 buy the .3) at Indy. I know the Colts are unbeaten and a monster at home, but they’re nursing injuries at some key positions. They’ll be starting 2 rookie corners and no Bob Sanders against the number two offense in the league which usually is a recipe for disaster. The Pats are finally clicking offensively and are looking like the pats of 07’. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up! Here’s the statline:

NCAA Week 10

I’m going to start off with another dog with the Stanford Cardinal (+11) on the road at USC. I know everyone remembers the upset and that might be some motivation for the men of troy but the Cardinal run the ball extremely well (211 per game) and will be able to keep SC’s offense off the field. Did you ever think you would see the day when Stanford gained more yards on the ground than USC? I think that’s a pretty big number for a team that controls the ball and doesn’t turn it over. Here's the stat line.

Next, I like Pittsburgh (-6.5, buy the .5 point) against ND. I looked at this and couldn’t figure out how it was only a touch. I realize that ND needs to become bowl eligible but Pitt needs this win to get a BCS bowl! The numbers all lean Pitts way and I can’t find a reason why ND should be within 2 scores. I realize the Big East is soft this year but then again so is ND’s schedule and they haven’t even done that well with it. Here’s the stat line, that’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

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NFL Week 9

Now that injury reports are in we can make a good assessment of the Sunday night game and I like the over (49.5 buy the .5 if you’re at 50) in the Dallas/Philly game. I was contemplating laying the 3 but there is way too much quant data pointing towards the over:

The total has gone OVER in 7 of Dallas's last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas's last 7 games when playing Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Philadelphia's last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Philadelphia's last 8 games when playing at home against Dallas

So quite a few indicators point towards the over and I’m not swimming against the tide. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in ring and keep your gloves up! Here's the stat line:

Yo, this is Nicky back for more action after a 2-0 day in the NCAA so let’s try to keep the mo’ going into Sunday. I see a lot of value in getting more than a field goal with the Chargers (+4.5) at the Giants. I know the GMen have lost three straight but San Diego is playing really well right now and they can win this on the field let alone keep it close. This is also a great teaser game.  

Behind Enemy Lines Week 9 in the NCAA

Yo, This is Nicky, for the third week in a row we’ve done at least 2-1 on the college board so thinks are starting to play true to form, so let’s try to find some value on the board. Although they’re unbeaten I’m still not sold on the Hawkeyes and although Northwestern is not a great club I think 15.5 is too much lumber for Iowa to cover, even at home. I realize Iowa is 9-1 ats in conference their last 10 but they haven’t looked good even at home and I’m going to go against the tape in this one. Here is the statline:

Another game where I see some value is the under on the Notre Dame/Navy Game (under 56.5)  I know I typically go the other way with the Irish as I think there is typically too much ‘dumb money’ no them but hear me out. Navy is 1-12 ATS their last 13 against the Irish and they only pass for an average on 71 yards per game, and that’s against bad competition. ND will go eight in the box and force them out of the option which will make it tough for the Midshipmen to put it in the endzone. It’s just too much lumber to lay on ND and I can’t trust the Irish as they are 1-6 ATS in its last 7, and 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home, so the under is the obvious choice. That’s the chowder for Saturday I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

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Behind Enemy Lines NFL

Well the Giants didn’t show up last week for us and it cost us a sub-par Sunday and made for an even weekend last week so we’ve got some work to do. We had a decent 2-1 day in college on Saturday so let’s shoot for at least a 4-2 weekend and double our money. The first game I see with some value is the Buffalo Bills (+3.5) at home vs. the Texans. I know I hate betting on bad teams but I like a home dog, bad weather, and a defense that can keep them in the game. Both teams have won two straight and I see this as a field goal game. I don’t think either one is good enough to beat the other by more than a touchdown. Here’s the Stat line.  

Next I like Ravens (-3, buy down to 2.5) at home against the Broncos. I’m one of those who still believes the they’re the worst 6-0 team in the history of the NFL and are waiting for them to come down to earth. A couple of years back an unbeaten Patriots team went into Baltimore and were lucky to get out with a win that some say the didn’t get even today. This Denver team is not in the same universe as that Pats team and the Ravens have a way of getting up for marquis games, and is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Denver.

Lastly, I’m going to go with the Ca’Boys (-9.5 buy down to 9)over the  Seachickens it’s not so much my faith in Romo as much as how well they’re playing protecting their new house (7-2 SU in its last 9, and 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games at home)and how bad Seattle is on the road. The Boys’ are also 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Seattle, so a little ownership. That’s this weeks chowda’ I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

Behind Enemy Lines College

Yo, this is Nicky back for more damage after a 2-1 weekend last week (Ole Miss cost us) and 5-1 over the last two weeks, we finally got a little momentum so let’s keep it going this week. It’s a tough week to call out there as it’s that time of year that you have to factor in all of the whether and injuries. With that in mind the first pick of the weekend is the under on ND/Washington St (-60.5, buy the .5) I know we haven’t played an under in a while but hear me out. Washington only averages 14 points per game with most of those coming during bench clearing time. The only question here is how much is Jimmy Clausen going to throw as he’s still in the Heisman race. Not enough to drop a fiddy spot so I like the under. Also ND has only covered once has a favorite this year and that was against Nevada on opening day, otherwise they’re 0-5. If that trend holds then who is going to score over 30 to get the over?  Here is the statline:

 

Stat Line ND vs. Wazu
Washington State		TEAM		ND
15.1		PTS FOR		30.0
37.0		PTS AGNST		24.1
-21.9		DIFF.		5.9
221.1		PASS YDS		305.9
72.6		RUSH YDS		132.6
284.1		PASS D		282.4
215.4		RUSH D		127.0
0.1		TO DIFF		-1.4

 

 

 

Next I like the Trojans (-3, buy down to 2.5) going up to Eugene to take one the Ducks. This is the biggest game in the Pac-10 this year and I realize how much of a roll O is on but they are just too banged up to stop the USC on offense. Their secondary is so depleted they had to ask a red-shirt to suit up. They face quite the dilemma as they can’t go 8 in the box to stop the run (SC averages 198 yards per game on the ground) because of the secondary and they can’t send help to cover the SC speed or size at the skill positions because of the running game. Now you stat lovers aren’t going to like this call as Oregon is 4-0 ATS against P-10 opponents and have covered 5 straight games, but you can’t quantify injuries.

 

Stat Line
USC		TEAM		Oregon
31.4		PTS FOR		34.0
15.1		PTS AGNST		16.7
16.3		DIFF.		17.3
242.1		PASS YDS		157.4
198.3		RUSH YDS		210.7
211.9		PASS D		178.3
79.9		RUSH D		118.9
0.4		TO DIFF		-0.7

 

 

The last game I like is Texas Tech (-7, buy down to 6.5) the Aggies lead the nation in passing and score plenty to cover this number. A win makes them bowl eligible and they cover well when playing within the conference at 7-3ATS, including 6-1 against Kansas their last 7 games. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring, and keep your gloves up!

 

Stat Line
KANSAS		TEAM		TXTECH
35.1		PTS FOR		40.0
22.7		PTS AGNST		23.8
12.4		DIFF.		16.3
329.4		PASS YDS		418.9
145.6		RUSH YDS		70.9
246.6		PASS D		238.5
98.3		RUSH D		129.3
-0.3		TO DIFF		0